Horse Racing NAP How To Pick the Horse and Race

A guide with easy to understand rules for beginners and novices new to Horse Racing

The term NAP comes from the card game called Napoleon, the person with the winning cards was holding the Napoleon Hand. Because of the games popularity the term Napoleon Hand was used to describe all sorts of undoubted winning outcomes and in horse racing it was shortened to NAP.

My Horse racing NAP guide, how to pick the horse and race to win derives from many losses mainly with accumulators so, my primary objective is not to lose all my money. Everybody wants to show you how much you can win, I am trying to show you how not to lose all your money and stay in the game. I call it defensive gambling. Statistically 97% lose all their money in the long run !!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Below is an explaination of how I go about picking my races and horses along with the rating sytem I use on my main tips page.

My Horse Race type suggestions are based on several rules listed below: 

 

1. I choose races that involve 5, 8 or 9 runners
   This is because the odds of achieving a 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in a 6-7 (a 5-7 horse race attracts a 2 place result) or 10 horse race or higher (an 8 horse race and higher attracts a 3 place result) means the odds reduce significantly.
   
   
2. I do not choose races that have the descriptions of  MAIDEN, APPRENTICE, TRIAL and NOT WON THIS YEAR or anything else that may suggest the horse or jockey are inexperienced unless I feel they have a good chance of achieving a place. 
   
   
3. I will suggest on some NOVICE Races
   
   
4. I suggest horses racing in class 5 & 6 races that have 8 runners only
   
   
5. In 5 horse races I will suggest class 4 or higher races
   
   
6. I choose races on the Flat over Jumps and occasionally All Weather
   UK only
   
   
7. I always look at Time Form
   
   
8. I avoid accumulators
   
   
9. I never pick when I have been drinking and I never fall victim to special offers of higher odds on specific races or horses unless I have already picked them. I never ever pick horses on a whim. 
   
   
10. You will notice a numbering system next to each suggestions name i.e. 1 1, or 1 2 this a a quality rating system for each tip.
    
    1 1 is the NAP suggestion
    1 2 is the NB (next best) suggestion
    
    Everything else is an OTHERS TO CONSIDER SUGGESTION and here I will also suggest horses races with 6 or 7 runners
    
    
11. All tips are suggestions that the horse has a good probability it will finish in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place regardless of the Odds. 
    
    
12. Sometimes non runners will affect the race and where the horse is eventually placed you should bear this in mind.  For instance a declared 5 horse race in the morning may have a non runner making it a 4 horse race. This means that your horse will have to win (come 1st) as the 2nd place return is lost.
     
13. **Remember THE OTHERS TO CONSIDER SECTION is just that and although the odds are generally higher and they do win or place the probability of them finishing in a 1st, 2nd or 3rd place is lower than a rating of 1 1 or 1 2. They are in a separate section and you should as with all suggestions undertake separate research. I do not include these in my month end results.
    
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My Horse Pick suggestions are based on several factors listed below;

 

The horses current form

It's win/place ratio

How well it's done at that race course

How well it's done at that distance

How well it's done in that race type (Flat, Hurdles, Fences/Chase & All Weather Tapeta/Polytrack)

How well it's done on that going/ground  (Turf: Heavy, Soft, Good to Soft, Good, Good to Firm, Firm. All Weather: Slow, Standard, Fast)

How well it's done at that class

How well it's done at Stakes, Handicap, Novice & Maiden races

How well it's done with the Jockey

How well it's done with the Trainer

It's age & sex

It's handicap & weight

It's Sire & Dam

Once I have used my rules regarding which type of race I will pick a horse from, I then go to Timeform and apply the above factors to my selection. (This means the horse will probably be the favourite) Then I cross reference with various other tipsters to see if they agree with my selection and I never look at the odds until after undergoing all steps because this may influence my decision. Remember the horse doesn't know the odds, so you should not let the odds influence you.

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